Time for Realpolitik

This Europe is a bit like the little cartoon creature who runs off a cliff, and keeps running in mid-air for a few seconds, until gravity unavoidably kicks in. Like the cartoon figure Europe is trying to carry on with the familiar motions, as if nothing happened, but denial of reality will not get us very far. If Europe wants to bounce back and bounce back stronger, it will have to face some hard truths. Europe is facing its biggest and most decisive test. We will only get one chance, there will not be a re-try. If we pass, we will come out stronger than ever. If we fail, the European Union has no more future. It will not end with a bang, the EU will just fizzle out, in “slow agony” as Draghi said. Europe has to urgently come out of its state of denial and act.

That includes first and foremost giving full support to Ukraine, including boots on the ground. It is a mistake (and immoral) to think that we can just give money to Ukraine and the Ukrainians will do the dirty work for us. This is not charity to Ukraine, it is about the security of the continent, our own security. The hesitation of Germany and other EU countries is utterly irresponsible and naive. Macron’s initiative for meetings of national government leaders is laudable, and he certainly understood the urgency. But it has yet to lead to concrete and substantial steps.

The Union must fast-track the EU accession of Ukraine and the other candidate countries. EU member states are covered ao by the mutual assistance clause in the EU Treaties. If Trump wants to make a deal with Putin, or get his hands on the precious raw materials in Ukraine, it will be the EU he has to negotiate with, not just Ukraine. Rapid accession does not mean lowering the bar, but inverting the order of the process as it were: join first, then get voting rights progressively as the criteria are met. Enlargement has always been and still is a political strategic decision. The current accession procedure was designed for the world of the early nineties, it is not suitable for today.

Our relations with the US need a reset. The days of the “special relationship” are over, the era of partnership based on equality must now start. Europe must not lower itself to the practices of Trump and his gang, but in all transatlantic dealings Europe’s interest must explicitly come first. It is vital for Europe to speak with one voice. That means national politicians will finally have to make their egos and their personal ambitions subordinate to the European interest. That would be true leadership.

Europe has so far tried to placate and appease Trump, just as they tried with Putin earlier. Forget it. It is leverage that counts, not love. Europe has to learn how to play hard ball. Europe should no longer accept that the US dictates our policies, nor that EU laws do not apply to all matters transatlantic. All EU laws regulating tech firms, environmental laws or competition rules must be applied fully and strictly. The same goes for Visa free travel: that should be lifted as long as the US do not comply with the rules. Europe should consider sanctions on individuals connected to the administration who are responsible for human rights violations, in the spirit of the Magnitsky act. There should be travel bans or even closed borders in case the new US health policies will lead to the spread of old diseases like measles. The transfer of bulk data and direct access to European data bases for US authorities must be terminated at once, as the conditions are no longer met (if they ever were). And let’s have a stiff talk about the NATO contributions. Is there a point to an increase above the agreed 2% for an alliance that refuses to protect us?

Of course some of this will hurt us in the short term, and there is a price to pay. But that is the price for decades of inertia. The price for action may be high. The price for inaction is infinitely higher. And in the long term a stronger, more integrated Europe will bring benefits and savings.

And finally: let’s learn the lessons. It is not as if no-one saw it coming. It is not the first time in history that Europe is in denial, sleepwalking into disaster, ignoring, dismissing, ridiculing or attacking the voices that warn about the dark clouds gathering. Many have warned for decades that Europe had to prepare for tough times, but national politicians, fearful and jealous of a strong supranational Europe, successfully obstructed further European integration, scaring people with the image of a - fully imaginary - superstate. Politicians are now warning about “external influence” and “disinformation” undermining our democracy, but they fail to see how they themselves have for decades parroted the narrative of Europe’s enemies, spreading anti-European sentiments, keeping Europe small and weak, unable to deal with a crisis of this magnitude. We are paying a very high price for naive pipe dreams of the all-powerful Nation State and blind trust in the eternal love and indulgence of our transatlantic friends. It is time to re-boot Europe. Closing our eyes and wishing away reality will not do the trick. European federalism is hard core Realpolitk now. Those who claim there is no need for governance and constitutional changes to the EU are deceiving the people. “If we want everything to stay the same, everything must change” as per the famous quote from the novel Il Gattopardo. Let’s get going!